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The return of the Bitcoin “Coinbase premium” could be a sign that BTC price is on the path to $138,000.
Market Analysis COINTELEGRAPH IN YOUR SOCIAL FEED
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price is up 8.5% in 2025, with the collective crypto market turning bullish ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.
Bitcoin 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
With BTC breaking past $100,000 yet again, multiple analysts presented new all-time high targets for the largest crypto asset in the coming days.
Could Bitcoin hit $138K in February?
Bitcoin closed a daily candle above $100,000 for the first time on Dec. 8, but since then, it has been above the six-figure level for only six days. A daily close above $100,000 will be a pivotal turn, and Posty, a crypto trader, said that BTC’s current price action reflects its bullish rally from Q1, 2021.
Bitcoin analysis by Posty. Source: X.com
After considering the laws of diminishing returns over a period of four years, the trader believed that if BTC continued to follow its previous cycle pattern, Bitcoin would be valued at around $138,000 in February.
Meanwhile, Cryptochimpanz, a Bitcoin proponent, believed that BTC’s monthly chart illustrated a “nasty” setup from its previous bull run. The trader said,
“If we follow a similar path, the price of Bitcoin can go as high as $200k.”
Bitcoin percent supply in Profit by Axel Adler Jr. Source: X.com
Additionally, Axel Adler Jr. highlighted that 90% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in profit. The Bitcoin researcher explained that unless there is a “black swan” in the current cycle, BTC drawdowns could be minimal and emulate its 2017 bull run, rather than 2021, when China’s BTC mining ban momentarily halted the rally.
Related: Why is Bitcoin price up today?
Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium at breakeven point
After a period of rigorous selling between Dec. 18 and Jan. 2, Bitcoin’s Coinbase premium has returned to a neutral index, as recorded on Jan. 4. In a recent quick-take post on CryptoQuant, IT Tech, an anonymous Bitcoin analyst explained that the premium increasing back to a breakeven point shows that “sentiment by the US and institutional investors is back.”
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Index. Source: CryptoQuant
However, it is important to remember that the Coinbase premium largely tracks US retail investor sentiment rather than institutional sentiment.
On the contrary, Cointelegraph earlier reported that overall Bitcoin retail investors’ transaction volumes have dropped significantly since BTC reached $108,000 last month.
The rolling 30-day change in retail-sized transaction volumes under $10,000 has dropped to lows, which was last witnessed in September 2024. With the variation dropping under -10%, Darkfost, an onchain analyst, said that it means retail interest had dropped significantly, but it opens an ideal buying opportunity over the long term.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has undergone a bullish break of structure (BOS) after it closed a daily candle above $97,000 last week.
Bitcoin 12-hour chart analysis by Crypto Scient. Source: X.com
Its’ current break above $100,000 is a positive sign, but Crypto Scient, a markets trader, emphasized that $100,000 remained a key inflection point for Bitcoin. The trader said,
“$BTC, Unless we breach $99k and flip it to support, I think we will see lower prices in Jan. Pretty simple triggers for me here: Break and flip $99k or retest or $90-88k zone.”
Related: Back to $76K for 2025? 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
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